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Stock markets will remain rangebound with a positive bias

Domestic markets are expected to open on a flat note with a positive bias. SGX Nifty at 17,720 signals a flat open, while Nifty futures closed Friday at 17,713. Asia-Pacific markets are also swinging between gains and losses in Monday’s early trade.

Analysts expect the market to remain in the tight range ahead of the earnings season and RBI monetary policy.

The RBI’s monetary policy committee, the first of the current financial year, is scheduled for April 6-8. Although most pundits believe RBI would keep the rate at current levels and take steps to support economic growth, its comments on inflation, which is reaching an uncomfortable level due to crude oil prices, will be closely watched.

Key factors to watch out for

Analysts say most of the negative news has been ignored by markets and FII interest will help the recovery.

Factors such as high fuel prices, lingering inflationary pressures and lingering uncertainty in Eastern Europe could exert some influence on markets in the coming days, said Dr Joseph Thomas, head of research at Emkay Wealth Management.

“Any moderation in any of these factors and their intensity will have a huge positive impact on market sentiment,” he added.

april reminder

According to Santosh Meena, head of research at Swastika Investmart, April remains historically one of the best months for equity markets, where mid- and small-cap stocks tend to outperform.

“It will be important to see how FII performs in FY23 after relentless selling in the second half of FY22. ₹5,600 crore,” he added.

F&O indicates a bullish bias

In addition, a healthy turnover in April contracts in the derivatives segment also signals a positive bias, market people said.

“If we look at the derivative data, the April series starts on a strong note as FII long exposure stands at 71% and the put-call ratio is at a comfortable level of 1.31,” he said. he said, adding “the India Vix Fear Index or Volatility Index also fell below 19. However, it has support near 200-DMA around 17.5”.

According to Meena, “The open interest distribution chart indicates that put writers look confident at the 17500 level while 18000 looks like immediate resistance.”

Published on

April 04, 2022