Signal price

Crude Oil Price Update – Strong Rally Puts $103.16

U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures are up on Monday. The catalysts for the recovery are a weaker US dollar and tight supplies as concerns about Russian gas supplies have grown. The limited gains are worries about demand, fueled by a possible recession and lockdowns in China.

As of 14:48 GMT, September WTI crude oil futures are trading at $98.89, up $4.32 or +4.57%. The United States Oil Fund ETF (USO) is at $77.16, up $3.42 or +4.64%.

Traders are today focused on the tight supply situation as, as expected, US President Joe Biden’s trip to Saudi Arabia did not result in any promise from OPEC’s top producer to increase supply of oil.

Biden hoped he could persuade Gulf oil producers to increase production to help lower oil prices and lower inflation.

September Daily WTI Crude Oil

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade down to $102.00 will change the main trend to the upside. A move to $88.23 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor range is $102.00 to $88.23. The market is currently trading on the strong side of its retracement zone at $96.74 to $95.12, making it a support.

The short-term range is $111.14-$88.23. Its 50% level at $99.69 is resistance.

The middle range is $118.08 to $88.23. If the main trend turns higher, look for a push into its retracement zone at $103.16-$106.68.

On the downside, the main support is the long-term retracement zone at $89.54-$82.80. This zone stopped selling at $88.23 on July 14th.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The reaction of traders at $99.69 will likely determine the direction of WTI crude oil futures from September through Monday’s close.

Bullish scenario

A sustained move above $99.69 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upward momentum, look for a push towards the main high at $102.00. Removing this level will change the main uptrend, with $103.16 to $106.68 the next major target.

Downside scenario

A sustained move below $99.69 will signal the presence of sellers. If this creates enough downside momentum, expect selling to eventually extend into the minor retracement zone at $96.74-$95.12.

If $95.12 fails as support, we could see a retest of $89.54 at $88.23.