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Crude Oil Price Update – API Gasoline Inventory Data May Fuel Late Session Volatility

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are down Tuesday night after posting a two-sided trade for most of the session. The market had been down since the open but recouped those earlier losses after the US energy secretary said Washington had not ruled out export curbs to drive down fuel prices. The capping of gains, however, was due to worries about a possible recession and COVID-19 lockdowns in China.

As of 19:02 GMT, July WTI Crude Oil is at $110.33, up $0.04 or +0.04%. The United States Oil Fund ETF (USO) is trading at $82.18, up $0.21 or +0.26%.

Separately, the American Petroleum Institute (API) Weekly Inventory Report will be released at 20:30 GMT for on-demand reading. Analysts expect lower gasoline and crude inventories.

Gasoline demand in the United States is expected to jump with the start of the summer driving season this weekend. Memorial Day weekend trips are expected to be the busiest in two years as more drivers hit the road and clear coronavirus lockdowns despite high prices at the pump.

July Daily WTI Crude Oil

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, the trend has been down since the formation of the closing price reversal high on May 17th. A trade at $113.20 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move to $103.24 will alter the main downtrend.

The small trend is up. However, a new minor high has formed at $111.96.

The minor range is $113.20 to $103.24. Its pivot at $108.22 is potential support.

The short-term range is $116.43-$88.53. Its retracement zone at $105.77 to $102.48 is support. This area also controls the short-term direction of the market.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The reaction of traders at $108.22 will likely determine the direction of the July WTI Crude Oil market through Tuesday’s close.

Bullish scenario

A sustained move above $108.22 will indicate the presence of buyers. If that creates enough upside momentum, we could see a break above the minor high at $111.96 with the main high at $113.20 the next target.

Downside scenario

A sustained move below $108.22 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a quick break to $105.77. A failure to hold this level will be a sign of weakness.

Secondary notes

Today’s API Weekly Stocks report could be the catalyst for any late trading volatility. The gasoline and distillate numbers will be particularly interesting to watch. A bullish report could trigger an upside breakout late in the session.