US stock markets and crypto markets are likely to remain volatile in the near term as traders remain nervous about the scale of the Federal Reserve’s next rate hike on September 20-21. While the majority favor a 75 basis point rate hike, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, some analysts expect the Fed to raise rates by 100 basis points, the first time since the start of the years. 1980.
Many expect Bitcoin (BTC) to continue its slide and fall below the June low going forward. Although everything is possible in the markets, often the markets do not oblige the majority. If the Fed doesn’t surprise the markets, traders who can be cautious and stay away could return immediately, leading to a brief relief rally.
Bear markets provide investors with the opportunity to accumulate over the long term. It is futile to catch the bottom, therefore traders may be on the lookout to start accumulating during periods of extreme pessimism. A strong stomach is necessary to ride out volatility, but those who do are likely to benefit when the next bull run begins.
Could Bitcoin and altcoins be starting a reversal or is a deeper decline possible? Let’s study the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin has been in a strong downtrend for several months. The buyers started a rally from the June low at $17,622 and pushed the price above the 200-week simple moving average (SMA), but they were unable to sustain the higher levels.
The bulls tried to push the price above the 200-week SMA again last week, but the bears held on. This shows that the bears are vigorously defending the 200-week SMA. Therefore, this level becomes a key resistance to watch on the upside.
On the downside, the bulls should aggressively defend the support at $17,622. The first sign of strength will be a breakout and a close above $20,000. This will suggest range-bound action for the BTC/USDT pair between $17,622 and $25,211.
A change in trend will be signaled after the buyers propel the price above $25,211. The pair could then rally back to $32,000.
Conversely, if the bears sink and hold the price below $17,622, it could signal the resumption of the downtrend. The pair could then drop to $14,000.
The bears have been defending the 20-week exponential moving average (EMA) ($1,732) for the past few weeks. This suggests that sentiment on Ether (ETH) remains bearish and traders are selling on rallies.
The ETH/USDT pair fell sharply from the 20-week EMA last week and reached the 200-week SMA ($1,283). Buyers should vigorously defend this level.
The bulls will need to push and hold the price above the 20 week EMA to signal that the bears may be losing their grip. A potential trend shift could be signaled upon a break above $2,030. Until then, the bears are likely to sell on every rally.
If the price breaks below the 200-week SMA, the selling could intensify and the bears will attempt to pull the price to the June low of $881. This is an important level for bulls to defend, as a break below could result in panic selling.
BNB is one of the best performers among the major cryptocurrencies as it is trading well above its 200-week SMA ($175). The buyers pushed the price above the 20-week EMA ($295), but they couldn’t build on that strength. The bears blocked the rally at $338 and pulled the price back below the 20-week EMA.
Since then, the bears have thwarted several attempts by the bulls to pull the price back above the 20-week EMA. This indicates that the bears are selling the rallies at the 20-week EMA. The bears will attempt to sink the BNB/USDT pair towards the 200 week SMA, which is likely to attract strong buying from the bulls.
The first sign of strength will be a break above the 20 week EMA. This could pave the way for a retest of $338. The bulls will have to clear this overhead obstacle to suggest the start of a new upward move.
Ripple (XRP) has been consolidating in a downtrend over the past few weeks. The buyers attempted to push the price above the range resistance at $0.41 last week, but the bears managed to defend the level.
The sellers will try to pull the price towards the support at $0.30. This remains the important level to watch because if the bears push the price below $0.30, the XRP/USDT pair could start the next leg of the downtrend. The pair could then decline to $0.24 and later to $0.17.
The 20-week EMA is flattening, indicating that selling pressure may be easing. If the price rebounds from $0.30, the pair could extend its stay in the range for a few more days. Buyers will need to push and hold the price above the 200-week SMA ($0.48) to indicate that the pair may have bottomed.
Cardano (ADA) has been trading below moving averages for the past few weeks. The bulls’ attempts to push the price above the 200-week SMA ($0.57) were met with heavy selling by the bears.
Although the bulls have been holding the $0.40 support for the past few weeks, the failure to push the price above the 200-week SMA indicates that the bears are selling on rallies. The bears will attempt to push the price down below the support at $0.40. If successful, ADA/USDT could resume its downtrend. The next downside support is $0.33 and then $0.28.
If the bulls want to avoid this catastrophe, they will have to quickly push the price above the 200-week SMA. The bears could once again attempt to pose a strong challenge at $0.70, but if the bulls overcome this barrier, the pair could signal the start of a new uptrend. The pair might hit the 50-week SMA ($0.96) first and then move to $1.25.
Solana (SOL) has rallied from the June low of $26, but the recovery has collapsed to near $48. The failure of the bulls to push the price to the 20-week EMA ($46) suggests that the bears are selling on minor rallies.
The bears will attempt to pull the price towards the crucial $26 support, which has not been tested since June. If this support cracks, the sell-off could accelerate and the SOL/USDT pair could drop to $20. The bulls are likely to defend this level aggressively.
Alternatively, if the price rises from the current level or rebounds from $26, the bulls will again try to drive the pair to overhead resistance at $48. Buyers will need to clear this hurdle to signal the start of a new uptrend. The pair could then attempt a rally to $78.
Dogecoin (DOGE) recovered from $0.05 in June and hit the 20-week EMA ($0.08) in August, but the bulls were unable to push the price above this resistance. The bears have been aggressively defending the level and are trying to drive the price down to $0.05.
If the $0.05 support breaks, the DOGE/USDT pair could resume its downtrend. The next downside support is at $0.04, but if the bulls fail to defend this level, the selling could intensify and the pair could crash below $0.01.
There is a small silver lining for the bulls as the RSI attempts to form a positive divergence. This suggests that the selling pressure might decrease. If the price rebounds from $0.05, the bulls will once again attempt to propel the pair above $0.09. If that happens, the pair could hit the 50-week SMA ($0.13).
Related: XRP Price Risks 30% Drop Despite Prospects of Ripple’s Legal Gain
Polkadot (DOT) has consolidated between $6 and $10 over the past few weeks. Usually in a range, traders buy the dips up to the support and sell near the overhead resistance.
If the price bounces off the $6 support with strength, it will suggest that buyers are piling up on the dips. This could keep the DOT/USDT pair stuck in range for some time. The longer the price trades inside a range, the stronger the potential breakout will be.
If the buyers propel the price above $10, it will suggest that the downtrend may end. This could pave the way for an eventual rally towards the 50-week SMA ($19).
On the contrary, if the price slips below the $6 support, the pair could start the next leg of the downtrend. The pair could then fall to the $3.50-$4 support zone.
Polygon (MATIC) rose sharply from $0.31 in June and broke above the 20-week EMA ($0.87), but buyers were unable to extend the rally. The bears blocked the relief rally to $1.05 and pulled the price back below the 20-week EMA.
The bulls again tried to push and hold the price above the 20 week EMA last week, but the bears did not give in. They sold aggressively and pulled the price towards the immediate support of $0.72. If this support breaks down, the MATIC/USDT pair could slide to $0.45 and then to $0.31.
On the contrary, if the price rises from the current level and breaks above the 20-week EMA, the pair might challenge the broad resistance at $1.05. A breakout and close above this level will suggest that the downtrend may be over. The price could then rally back to the 50-week SMA ($1.31) and then to $1.75.
Shiba Inu (SHIB) rallied strongly from its June low and broke above the 20-week EMA ($0.000013) in August. However, the breakout turned out to be a bear trap as the price broke from $0.000018 and fell back below the 20-week EMA.
Even though the price traded below the 20-week EMA, the bulls did not allow the SHIB/USDT pair to retest the June low at $0.000007. This indicates that the buyers are trying to form a higher low.
The first sign of strength will be a break and a close above the 20 week EMA. The pair could then rally to $0.000018. If the bulls push the price above this resistance, it will suggest a potential trend change. The pair could then rise to $0.000030.
This positive view could be invalidated if the price continues to decline and breaks below $0.000007. This could drop the pair to $0.000005.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
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