Signal price

A return to $0.50 in the hands of Powell

Key ideas:

  • It was a bullish Wednesday session, with Cardano (ADA) gaining 3.68%.
  • Network updates have taken a back seat for another day, with the NASDAQ 100 delivering a full-scale crypto rally.
  • Technical indicators are turning bullish with ADA trading above the 50-day and 100-day EMAs to put $0.50 in play.

On Wednesday, ADA rose 3.68%. Partially reversing a 7.23% drop from Tuesday, ADA ended the day at $0.479.

A choppy morning saw ADA slip to an early low of $0.454. However, avoiding the first major support level (S1) at $0.425, ADA hit a high of $0.482 before pulling back. Despite the breakout session, ADA failed to reach the first major resistance level (R1) at $0.497.

After daily losses, the NASDAQ 100 provided ADA and the broader crypto market with much-needed support. Falling US Treasury yields boosted demand for riskier assets. The benefit came despite hawkish chatter from FOMC members.

In recent days, the bullish sentiment towards Vasil’s hard fork seems to have subsided. Similar trends occurred with other coins as the hard forks approached. However, in the longer term, network improvements remain positive for ADA.

Entry Exit HK Hard Fork Closes in as Exchanges Level Up

Overnight, there were no Input Output HK updates to influence the ADA price action. However, progress towards the September 22 hard fork continues.

As of September 7, the ADA Hard Fork mass indicator updates are as follows:

  • 13 exchanges are ready for the hard fork, compared to 11 on September 6:
  • Hard fork-ready exchanges include AscendEX (Bitmax), Bitkub, Bitmart, Bitrue, BKEX, Btc Turk, Dex-Trade, Gate.io, Litebit.eu, MEXC, NDAX, OKex, and Whitebit.
  • Twenty-six exchanges are underway, up one from the previous day, with Binance “almost there” and Coinbase and Kraken reporting ongoing upgrades.

Among the top 12 exchanges by liquidity:

  • Four exchanges are ready for the hard fork: Bittrue, BKEX, MEXC, and WhiteBit, with four in the works, including Binance, Coinbase, HitBTC, and Upbit.
  • However, four exchanges have not yet started the upgrade process: AAX, ChangellyPro, XT.com and ZB.com.

Following the successful upgrade of 75% of SPO nodes to v1.35.3, the crypto market is tracking two critical mass indicators, namely:

  • Upgraded approximately 25 exchanges (representing approximately 80% of ADA’s liquidity).
  • TVL’s Top 10 Dapps confirm they’ve upgraded to 1.35.3 in pre-production and are ready for mainnet.

Overnight, PoolTool showed that 83% of Cardano SPO nodes upgraded to v1.35.3. While the upgrade momentum has stalled, the nodes have reached the 75% threshold.

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was down 0.42% at $0.477. A mixed start to the day saw ADA hit an early high of $0.481 before falling to a low of $0.475.

ADAUSD 080922 Daily Chart

Technical indicators

ADA needs to avoid the $0.472 pivot to target the first major resistance level (R1) at $0.489. Although Vasil’s hard fork updates remain positive, the remaining eight most liquid ADA exchanges need to be upgraded to provide ADA price support.

In the event of an extended crypto rally, ADA could test the second major resistance level (R2) at $0.500. Dovish Fed Chairman Powell chatter would support a move back to $0.500. US economic indicators will also need to be crypto-friendly, with US unemployment claims expected later today. The third major resistance level (R3) is located at $0.528.

A drop through the pivot would bring into play the first major support level (S1) at $0.461. However, barring another prolonged sell-off, ADA is likely to avoid sub-$0.450 and the second major support level (S2) at $0.444. A hawkish Fed chairman and a drop in unemployment insurance claims would put pressure on ADA. The third major support level (S3) is located at $0.412.

ADAUSD 080922 Hourly Chart

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hour candlestick chart (below) sent a bullish signal.

ADA was sitting above the 50-day and 100-day EMAs, currently at $0.474. The 50-day EMA converged towards the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA, signaling an impending move.

A bullish cross from the 50-day EMA to the 100-day EMA would bring into play the 200-day EMA ($0.482) and major resistance levels. However, a drop in ADA through the 50 and 100 day EMAs would give the bears a run to S1 ($0.461).

ADAUSD 080922 4 hour chart