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2018 Ethereum Price Fractal Suggests $400 Low, But Analysts Say Merger Is A ‘Wildcard’

There is no rest for the weary during a bear market, and the Crypto Fear and Greed Index shows investor sentiment has been stuck in a state of “extreme fear” for a record 70 straight days.

As the market looks for a catalyst to reverse the trend, there is little on the horizon aside from the Ethereum (ETH) meltdown that looks capable of triggering a rally. If this is indeed the case, the market could continue its downward or sideways trend until the provisional merger date of September 19th.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that Ether price remains sandwiched in the trade zone it has been trading in since June 13 and it is currently bumping up against upper resistance near $1,240.

ETH/USDT 1-day chart. Source: Trading View

With the merger just months away and nothing else on Ethereum’s near-term roadmap, here’s what analysts are saying to watch out for.

Ether is now trading above its moving averages

A short message of hope at this important resistance level was provided by futures trader Peter Brandt, who job the following table and simply said “Maybe baby $ETH.”

ETH/USD 1-day chart. Source: Twitter

Additional context to go along with Brandt’s observation was provided by crypto trader Albert III, who job the following chart highlighting the fact that Ether is now trading above several key moving averages.

ETH/USD 4 hour chart. Source: Twitter.

The analyst said,

“We got a bullish cross between 200 and 50 4h moving average. Looking for more upside locally.

The Ethereum merger is the “wildcard”

A more in-depth perspective on Ether’s future was offered in the recent “ETH 30d return outlook” report published by cryptocurrency research firm Jarvis Labs, which used the 30-day returns metric to ” measure the short-term profits and losses of the aggregate market at a given time.

30 day returns for Ethereum. Source: Jarvis Laboratories

As the chart above shows, Ether’s 30-day returns are now “heading towards 0% after being deeply negative since April,” suggesting that the market is turning more bullish as the merger nears.

According to Jarvis Labs, instances where 30-day returns fall below 0% during bull markets indicate “prime buying opportunities,” while “reversals above 0% are ideal selling opportunities.” during bear markets.

Compared to Ether’s price action in the fourth quarter of 2018, where it consolidated in the low $200 range before dropping to $82 in December, “a repeat of this fractal would now bring Ether to the $200 range. $400 by December 2022”.

30 day returns for Ethereum. Source: Jarvis Laboratories

According to Jarvis Labs, if this fractal does indeed replay, “all pumps up to the $1,700 level will trigger selling for the next year.”

Jarvis Labs said:

“Conversely, a $1,700 reversal from resistance to support would equal the summer 2020 reversal of around $350 and could signal the start of a whole new bull run.”

As a final word of warning, Jarvis Labs warned that while “short-term rallies towards the $1,400-$1,700 range are possible”, traders should be cautious as “they are likely to be satisfied by strong sales”.

Related: ECB report compares PoW to fossil fuel cars, PoS to electric vehicles

Ogle the supply zone at $1,420

Ether’s near-term outlook was covered by analyst and pseudonymous Twitter user Crypto Tony, who reference the following chart, outlining the next level of resistance to watch.

ETH/USDT 4 hour chart. Source: Twitter

Crypto Tony said,

“I seek to bridge the gap above as [we] head into the next supply zone at $1,420.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.